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'Katy, Bar the Door': Why Pelosi's Trip to Taiwan is Fraught With Risk of Military Escalation_我的网站

A |     "Remember what happened in 1983? Two days after 241 Marines were blown up in Lebanon, the USA invaded tiny Grenada. Overnight, the previous headlines disappeared. I think we are seeing the same today. NATO is losing badly in Ukraine and it’s going to be a long winter for the West. Pounding its imperial chest with Taiwan is now what the MSM is reporting, much less so Ukraine," suggests Jeff J. Brown, author of "The China Trilogy," editor at China Rising Radio Sinoland, and curator of the Bioweapon Truth Commission.,If Pelosi travels to Taiwan, this would be the first time a high-ranking US politician visits the place in 25 years. Last time it was Newt Gingrich, then-speaker of the US House of Representatives, who arrived on the island in 1997, ignoring the Chinese leadership's discontent.,"I said firmly, 'We want you to understand, we will defend Taiwan. Period,'" Gingrich told the press at the time, as quoted by The New York Times. However, Clinton administration officials made it clear that Gingrich "was speaking for himself.",Likewise, it appears that Pelosi's apparent visit to Taiwan is not in line with the Biden administration's China policy, argues Francesco Sisci, a Beijing-based China expert, author, and columnist.,"American politics is not set like an omniscient Leviathan," the China expert says. "The Congress, the Senate, the executive all move according to different agendas which do not often coincide and are in conflict with one another. The issue is that there is a growing anti-Beijing sentiment in America and this has sometimes bursts which aren’t fully sorted out. I believe the visit is an expression of a sentiment, rather than of a clear cut plan.",According to CNN, Pelosi's initiative has triggered concerns both in the Biden administration and the Pentagon, with US national security officials "quietly working to convince House Speaker Nancy Pelosi of the risks of her potential trip to Taiwan." While in 1997 Beijing and Washington managed to solve the dilemma, this time the PRC leadership might opt for a harsher response, CNN and The Guardian have warned.,US Military Expansion in Asia-Pacific is Part of Plan to Take on Russo-China Tandem, Scholar Says28 July, 16:15 GMT,Washington has been fanning US-Sino tensions for quite a while, starting with Donald Trump's tariff war against Beijing, which has yet to be halted by Joe Biden. In a candid phone conversation, Chinese President Xi Jinping warned his American counterpart against "playing with fire" over Taiwan and explained that any involvement would ultimately backfire on the US.,"A Chinese general has publicly declared that Pelosi’s visit could entail a military response from Beijing," Brown says. "China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has repeated this. Now, with Xi’s 'You get burned playing with fire' metaphor, I think there would be a military response.",Senior Colonel Tan Kefei, a spokesperson for China's Ministry of Defense, stated on July 26: "If the US insists on taking its own course, the Chinese military will never sit idly by, and it will definitely take strong actions to thwart any external force's interference.",Tan highlighted that Pelosi's visit to Taiwan would "seriously violate the one-China principle" and "seriously harm China's sovereignty and territorial integrity, and seriously damage the political foundation of China-US relations.",Meanwhile, Brown surmises that China's hypothetical response "might include a declared no-fly zone." However, there is a "much more elegant option," according to the author:,"[China could] take over Taiwan’s Kinmen Island, which is only two kilometers from Xiamen, off China’s Fujian Province coast. It would take only a few hours. I do not think Beijing will strike any US targets, unless attacked first.",North Korea Ready to Mobilize Nuclear Deterrence Forces at Any Moment - Kim Jong Un28 July, 01:13 GMT,The scholar also does not rule out that the Democratic People's Republic of Korea's (DPRK) remark, made earlier this week, that Pyongyang is “fully prepared” for any military conflict with the United States is no coincidence.,"Does Biden know that China and nuclear-armed North Korea have had a mutual defense treaty since 1961?" Brown asks rhetorically. "NATO is being bled dry in Ukraine and it is imperial folly, hubris or geopolitical brinkmanship to think it can fight East Asia’s biggest and most powerful military, which is only 200 km from Taiwan.",For his part, Sisci believes that the PRC could opt for an asymmetrical non-military response. Still, the unfolding crisis is complicated by the fact that Washington is already involved in a confrontation with Russia, raising questions as to whether the US is capable of taking on Moscow and Beijing at once.,"I don’t think that either China or the US wants an escalation," says Sisci. "The talk between Biden and Xi Jinping was to avoid an escalation.",Brown also believes that Beijing's warnings have been heard by Washington.,"Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan has been bandied about by Washington for months now," he says. "A supposed Covid-19 infection scuttled the first trial balloon. After Biden’s phone call yesterday with Xi, I suspect another American 'postponement' is likely to occur. If not, then 'Katy, bar the door!'"。    据都市快报消息， 1月9日下午3点50分左右，日本兵库县的两名中国女游客在铁路道口等红绿灯时遭列车撞击身亡。一男子发现两名女子重伤倒地后报警，其中一女子当场身亡，另一女子送医后身亡。警方在两人的随身物品中发现中国护照。据上海电视台新闻综合频道《新闻坊》消息，通过入境时的指纹对比，两位中国姑娘的身份已经被确认，正在联系家属。

B | 调查发现，事故发生前，被撞的两名女性站在公路和铁路平交道口已放下的禁止通行护栏处。日本警方推测，两人或误以为铁轨内是“信号灯等待区”。

C | 列车司机说：“我看不到她们，因为她们在铁路道口的电线杆后面，被电线杆挡住了。”警方将继续调查当时发生的详细情况。《新闻坊》介绍说，发生事故的神户市垂水区路段，情况复杂是当地民众公认的危险地带。要穿过2条铁道线，在铁道与公路之间的“隔离区”等红绿灯过斑马线才能抵达对面，事故就发生在这个隔离区。

D | 这个隔离区不仅特别窄还是个斜坡，也就成年人的两肩那么宽，推自行车的话，前轮都要进入斑马线。

E | 因为过于危险，有警告牌写着禁止小学生穿越这条路，可以走西舞子车站的地下通道，有些绕道，需要多走10到15分钟。当地居民都知道在这个铁路线外侧，又窄又陡的隔离区等红绿灯很危险，感觉早晚要出事，但没想到会是在铁路线内侧发生这么严重的人身事故。根据电车司机的证词，发生碰撞时，两人是站在铁路线区域内，面朝公路方向，应该是等红绿灯要过马路。对于可能造成事故的理由，有以下猜测： 第一，电车经过时的噪音并没有想象中的那么大，公路上货车频繁经过，车速快，噪音也大，如果戴着耳机的话，很难在更早些的时候发现电车正在靠近。第二，穿越过铁道后，要摁下过马路的专用摁键，红绿灯才能切换。如果安全杆已经放下来，也可以越过这个安全杆，摁下这个摁键。但外国游客的话，可能很难留意到这个设置。

F | 第三，也可能是两个人一边说着话一边走，都未注意到自己还站在铁路线区域内。网友对此议论纷纷。

G | 有网友提出了疑问，“为什么会站护栏内等红绿灯”“火车来有声音，都不看吗？” 也有不少网友表示，事发路口及类似道口存在危险性且有误导性，“说老实话这个踏切我要是遇到了，也会不自觉地站栏杆里面。” 也有网友建议，最好画明禁止区域，做好安全指示。（综合自都市快报、新闻坊等） 本文系观察者网独家稿件，未经授权，不得转载。

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